Publications

Under review

2026

Quantifying drought-induced systemic risk in the Polish economy through an integrated Nature Value-at-Risk and Dynamic Inoperability Input–Output approach

Gacek, K., & Santos, J. R. — Risk Analysis · IF 3.3 under review

Abstract

An integrated framework that couples a Nature Value-at-Risk perspective with Dynamic Inoperability Input–Output modelling to quantify the systemic economic risk generated by drought in Poland, including the cumulative losses accumulated along the recovery path.

  • Drought
  • Systemic Risk
  • Nature Value-at-Risk
  • DIIM
  • Poland

Peer-reviewed articles

2026

Who pulls, who pushes? Mapping Poland’s 2020 water footprint and key sectors via Input–Output backward/forward linkages

Gacek, K. — Water Resources and Industry, 35, 100368 · IF 7.5 · doi.org/10.1016/j.wri.2026.100368

Abstract

The study maps how water use propagates through Poland’s economy, joining the 2020 national Input–Output accounts with sectoral withdrawal data from Statistics Poland in a consistent environmentally extended framework. Direct and indirect water use is derived from the Leontief model, and three complementary pairs of linkages — total, size-adjusted and net, each with a backward and a forward component — classify every sector as key, backward-oriented, forward-oriented or weak.

Withdrawals prove extremely concentrated: electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, chemicals, and paper together account for 94.2% of industrial withdrawals, while 65.3% of economy-wide water use arises indirectly, upstream of the sector that meets final demand. Direct effects dominate in 32 sectors and indirect effects in 27. The linkage measures expose systemic roles that headline withdrawal figures hide — food and beverage service activities show strong size-adjusted backward reach, and architectural and engineering services very high linkages in both directions — while 62 of 77 sectors fall into the weak category.

The contribution is threefold: an economy-wide decomposition that combines linkages with concentration metrics to locate policy leverage points; a size-adjusted indicator set that separates scale from systemic reach and so permits fair comparison across sectors; and a majority-rule classification that turns six linkage measures into a practical basis for choosing between supplier-focused, buyer-standards-based and dual interventions. Water-intensive industries, the study concludes, need to move from isolated facility-level efficiency to management of the whole value chain.

  • Input–Output Models
  • Water Use
  • Backward Linkages
  • Forward Linkages
  • Direct/Indirect Effects
  • Key Sectors
  • Water Footprint

2025

Industrial waste in Poland (2010–2020): a sectoral view using Input–Output models and structural decomposition analysis

Gacek, K. — Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica, 1–24 · doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.371.01

Abstract

The paper traces industrial waste generation in the Polish economy over the decade 2010–2020, asking how technological change and shifts in final demand jointly shaped the volume and composition of waste. Environmentally extended Input–Output models are combined with structural decomposition analysis: using Polish Input–Output tables for 2010 and 2020 together with waste data aggregated into 17 sectoral clusters, the change in waste output is decomposed into waste intensity, technology and final demand components, with further disaggregation into product-mix adjustments, demand composition and sector-specific technological change. Final demand emerges as the dominant driver of the increase. Technological change works in both directions — the largest reduction appears in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, while waste collection, treatment and disposal together with materials recovery records a marked increase — and mining and quarrying as well as construction play key roles.

  • Input–Output Models
  • Waste Generation
  • Leontief Models
  • Structural Decomposition Analysis

2025

Sectoral interdependencies and waste generation in Poland (2010–2018): insights from Input–Output analysis

Gacek, K. — Economics and Environment, 92(1), 798 · IF 1.0 · doi.org/10.34659/eis.2025.92.1.798

Abstract

The study investigates the interdependencies between economic activity and waste generation in the Polish economy, identifying key sectors and tracking how their classification changed between 2010 and 2018. Five pairs of backward and forward linkages are computed from Input–Output tables. Mining and quarrying, manufacturing and energy emerge as the primary contributors. Taking sector size into account makes it possible to compare parts of the economy that differ in function and scale, and on that basis agriculture, forestry and fishing together with two manufacturing sectors also qualify as key sectors. The paper documents shifts in the waste profile of sectors and supplies an empirical base for targeted policy interventions.

  • Input–Output Table
  • Waste Generation
  • Multiplier Analysis
  • Backward Linkages
  • Forward Linkages

2024

Tracing the drivers of waste generation in Poland (2010–2018): a structural decomposition and Input–Output approach

Gacek, K. — Bulletin of Geography. Socio-Economic Series, 63, 75–85 · IF 0.8 · doi.org/10.12775/bgss-2024-0006

Abstract

The paper applies structural decomposition analysis within an extended Input–Output model to trace the main sources of waste generation in Poland between 2010 and 2018. Economic growth over that period was accompanied by rising waste volumes, with the quantities produced depending on sectoral output and on a number of underlying factors. The decomposition shows how changes in final demand and in technology affected the waste generated by individual sectors over the period analysed, and the paper argues that the technique is a valuable tool for environmental analysis, giving a comprehensive view of the links between economic activity, environmental impact and waste generation.

  • Input–Output Table
  • Waste Generation
  • Structural Decomposition Analysis
  • Leontief Model
  • Planning & Development